What is the point in statistics when it is based on an image that someone wants to present?
Maybe their goal is to keep us from panicking. But I would still like to know the truth about the swine flu. I would feel better if I felt they where monitoring it. And it may seem like they do until I tell you how it really works.
Officially, according to CDC , there are 13,217 confirmed cases of H1N1 flu infection (Swine flu) in the US. But I can’t help wondering how many cases there really are?
Here in Ann Arbor ,Michigan, one of the elementary schools almost closed down a couple of weeks ago when 19% of the students were sick, with the flu. The local newspapers reassured that only 2 of them had swine flu. But if you took the time to read the whole article you found that only 2 students were tested for H1N1. And yes, the test said they are positive. What the other 78 students had, no one will ever know.
The kids were diagnosed with the flu but were sent back home. What kind of flu? That was to be irrelevant. Only the two who were hospitalized were tested for H1N1.
What does the CDC statistics mean if we don’t test people for swine flu? How many cases of the swine flu did the US really have? Lets turn the statistics around.
So let’s say that half of the 78 kids here in Ann Arbor had the swine flu. Now I’m being pretty nice. It’s not flu season. H1N1 is a totally new type of virus that showed a big health risk when acquired. Of the kids who had the flu, I’m guessing most of them had swine flu. But let’s be nice today, lets use 50%.
This would mean that only 5% of the US swine flu cases are reported. And 13,217 reported cases then turns into 264 340 real swine flu cases nation wide. Hmm.
The CDC acknowledges that there are more cases than reported but with figures I’ve seen they have counted on 10-15% being reported, which is totally different than what is happening here in Ann Arbor.
I don’t think there is any reason to panic about the swine flu, at least not in its current state, but I would like them to monitor it. Is that really too much to ask?
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